This season's peak home sales mirror last year's numbers | Real Estate
Our peak time for home sales this year, May to August, was very similar to 2018. In Leon County, during this period, 1,351 single family homes closed compared with 1,381 last year. The average sold price of $268,705 this year was 1% less than last year.
体育在线365Why is the market rather stagnant?
Politicians say if elected they will reduce the size and cost of government. And how do they do that? We all know this is a government employee community, the capital, the universities and colleges are the source of many of the buyers. Where are they going to get the money to buy a home or maybe upgrade to a larger home?
While Tallahassee is a great place to live, we don’t have a beach to attract newcomers moving to Florida. I have mentioned in earlier articles, we are like Key West in that we are limited in land areas for development for new subdivisions or industry. Without that, we are not an attractive area for large new industry which would bring employees needing housing. So, our buyer pool will likely remain about the same.
In doing any statistics the more the data you can analyze the more it will provide significant results.
For this reason, I like to use the NE Quadrant of Leon County to best portray real estate home sale trends in all of Leon County. Of the sales in the Peak period, 55% were in the NE, 26% in NW, 14% in SE and 6% in the SW. I also separate the resale home market from new construction. The data I use also excludes: townhouses, condos, mobile and modular homes, lender foreclosed homes and short sales.
I would like to clarify to you as to what I am reporting to you when I write about home sales data. What is a “home”? Your home could be many things, it could be a single-family detached house, townhouse, condo, apartment or even a tent. When I use the word “home” it refers to a “single-family detached house” and this is what National and State reports consider it as well. When you read news articles or hear home sales reports on TV, they mean the same.
体育在线365During the May to August period, in the NE Quadrant there were 661 closed sales with an average 47 days on the market with an average sold price of $318,991. This price was 2% less than last year and the time on market and number of sales were about the same. There was a higher median price in 2019 of $286,000 which was 2% higher.
There are currently about 295 homes on the market that are not under contract in the northeast. While the home sales have been about the same for the past two years, there has been a very short supply of homes on the market priced less than $500,000.
Below are the number of homes by price range currently available for sale and those sold in the May to August period and the monthly supply. A 6 months’ supply is what is considered an optimum month’s supply for a healthy market.
Now a look at new construction homes in Leon County closed in May to August. The data below is flawed in that I am limited in the data available to me regarding new construction. Many new home sales are not reported into the MLS. If a Realtor is involved in the sale, it likely will be reported. Direct sales from a builder to a buyer are usually not reported in MLS. The County Appraiser’s Tax Role likely may show the sales price of the vacant land, but not the price a buyer pays a builder for the completed home.
The average price increase for new construction from 2017 to 2018 was 3% and 4% from 2018 to 2019.
体育在线365It is understandable a new construction home is going to cost more for a lot of reasons.
体育在线365Basically, the increase in the cost of development of the land, materials and labor. Most home buyers that are looking for the “best bang for the buck,” purchase a resale home.
体育在线365To give you an idea of approximately the cost difference, I came up with a model home for comparison. The resale home would not be a mobile or modular, not a lender owned or short sale, 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1800 to 2400 square feet, 2 car garage, no pool, lot less than an acre, and built between 2000 to 2017 and closed May through August.
I used the same model for the new construction, except built 2018 to 2019. There were 88 resales with an average price of $313,998 at $153 per sq ft and 38 new construction sold with an average price of $369,454 at $176 per sq ft.
体育在线365How do homes with a garage compared to those having only a drive?
Maybe you could use another bedroom or just another room. If you enclose you will have more sq ft in your living area but will it add value? Likely not, you have lost the value of having a garage. People not only may use a garage for their car; but it is a place for “their stuff.”
体育在线365No garage also means it will take longer to sell your home. In NE Leon County there are currently about 500 homes listed for sale. Fifty of these have a “drive only” (including 26 that have enclosed the garage) and they have been on the market for an average of 90 days. These homes are listed for $136 per sq ft. Homes with drive only sold in the May to Aug period for $132 per sq ft. During the same period there were 345 homes with garages that sold for $149 per sq ft, 13% more and in 29% less time, on an average, of 64 days.
A pool or no pool?
Regardless of cost, some people WANT a pool and that is understandable. A local company that installs pools told me the basic pool cost is about $30,000 and most cost a lot more. The cost of a pool and all that goes with it can cost much more in particular with upscale homes. In the NE of Leon County there are 88 homes listed with a pool. The median price of this group is $495,000 ($166 per sq ft) and they have been on the market for about 88 days.
体育在线365There are 412 homes without a pool listed with the median price of $304,000. ($154 per sq ft) and on the market for about 79 days. Homes with a pool sell in less time on the market and for 7% more.
Now here is what the selling prices were during May through August. 125 homes with pools sold for a median price of $360,000, ($151 per sq ft) and were on the market for an average of 55 days before contracted. 615 homes without a pool sold for a median price of $280,000, ($149 per sq ft) and on the market for an average of 53 days to being contracted. Homes with and without a pool sold in about the same time on the market. Homes with a pool sold on an average of only 1% more.
The attached graph is a pictorial view of a two years home sales trend. As you can see the trend of the number of sales seems to repeat itself in a seasonal pattern with the cycle beginning in January. The average and median sold prices are erratic without a real defining direction.
Donald Pickett is a Realtor with Coldwell Banker, Hartung and Noblin, and owner of Tallahassee Real Estate N Data Services. Contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org 850-591-4725.